COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 BA.1/BA.2 lineages among adults and adolescents in a multicentre primary care study, Europe, December 2021 to June 2022.

BackgroundScarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.AimWe aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.MethodsThis European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24-47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44-72%), 43% (95% CI: 26-55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13-43%) < 90, 90-179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32-51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47-64%), 22% (95% CI: 2-38%) and 3% (95% CI: -78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.ConclusionPrimary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Inference of age-dependent case-fatality ratios for seasonal influenza virus subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 and B lineages using data from the Netherlands.

Background: Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality. Methods: The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/2012 through 2019/2020 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimate influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group. Results: Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09 and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age. Conclusions: These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination and for health economic evaluations.

Pediatric acute flaccid myelitis: Evaluation of diagnostic criteria and differentiation from other causes of acute flaccid paralysis.

BACKGROUND: Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is characterized by rapidly progressive limb weakness with low muscle tone. It has a broad differential diagnosis, which includes acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), a rare polio-like condition that mainly affects young children. Differentiation between AFM and other causes of AFP may be difficult, particularly at onset of disease. Here, we evaluate the diagnostic criteria for AFM and compare AFM to other causes of acute weakness in children, aiming to identify differentiating clinical and diagnostic features. METHODS: The diagnostic criteria for AFM were applied to a cohort of children with acute onset of limb weakness. An initial classification based on positive diagnostic criteria was compared to the final classification, based on application of features suggestive for an alternative diagnosis and discussion with expert neurologists. Cases classified as definite, probable, or possible AFM or uncertain, were compared to cases with an alternative diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 141 patients, seven out of nine patients initially classified as definite AFM, retained this label after further classification. For probable AFM, this was 3/11, for possible AFM 3/14 and for uncertain 11/43. Patients initially classified as probable or possible AFM were most commonly diagnosed with transverse myelitis (16/25). If the initial classification was uncertain, Guillain-Barré syndrome was the most common diagnosis (31/43). Clinical and diagnostic features not included in the diagnostic criteria, were often used for the final classification. CONCLUSION: The current diagnostic criteria for AFM usually perform well, but additional features are sometimes required to distinguish AFM from other conditions.

Epidemiology of acute flaccid myelitis in children in the Netherlands, 2014 to 2019.

BackgroundAcute flaccid myelitis (AFM) is a polio-like condition affecting mainly children and involving the central nervous system (CNS). AFM has been associated with different non-polio-enteroviruses (EVs), in particular EV-D68 and EV-A71. Reliable incidence rates in European countries are not available.AimTo report AFM incidence in children in the Netherlands and its occurrence relative to EV-D68 and EV-A71 detections.MethodsIn 10 Dutch hospitals, we reviewed electronic health records of patients diagnosed with a clinical syndrome including limb weakness and/or CNS infection and who were < 18 years old when symptoms started. After excluding those with a clear alternative diagnosis to AFM, those without weakness, and removing duplicate records, only patients diagnosed in January 2014-December 2019 were retained and further classified according to current diagnostic criteria. Incidence rates were based on definite and probable AFM cases. Cases' occurrences during the study period were co-examined with laboratory-surveillance detections of EV-D68 and EV-A71.ResultsAmong 143 patients included, eight were classified as definite and three as probable AFM. AFM mean incidence rate was 0.06/100,000 children/year (95% CI: -0.03 to 0.14). All patient samples were negative for EV-A71. Of respiratory samples in seven patients, five were EV-D68 positive. AFM cases clustered in periods with increased EV-D68 and EV-A71 detections.ConclusionsAFM is rare in children in the Netherlands. The temporal coincidence of EV-D68 circulation and AFM and the detection of this virus in several cases' samples support its association with AFM. Increased AFM awareness among clinicians, adequate diagnostics and case registration matter to monitor the incidence.

Incidence and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in former Q fever patients as compared to the Dutch population, 2020-2021.

Surveillance data shows a geographical overlap between the early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the past Q fever epidemic (2007-2010) in the Netherlands. We investigated the relationship between past Q fever and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in 2020/2021, using a retrospective matched cohort study.In January 2021, former Q fever patients received a questionnaire on demographics, SARS-CoV-2 test results and related hospital/intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. SARS-CoV-2 incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI) in former Q fever patients and standardised incidence ratios (SIR) to compare to the age-standardised SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the general regional population were calculated.Among 890 former Q fever patients (response rate: 68%), 66 had a PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of these, nine (14%) were hospitalised and two (3%) were admitted to ICU. From February to June 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 incidence was 1573/100 000 (95% CI 749-2397) in former Q fever patients and 695/100 000 in the general population (SIR 2.26; 95% CI 1.24-3.80). The incidence was not significantly higher from September 2020 to February 2021.We found no sufficient evidence for a difference in SARS-CoV-2 incidence or an increased severity in former Q fever patients vs. the general population during the period with widespread SARS-CoV-2 testing availability (September 2020-February 2021). This indicates that former Q fever patients do not have a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021.

IntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.

Contribution of Influenza Viruses, Other Respiratory Viruses and Viral Co-Infections to Influenza-like Illness in Older Adults.

Influenza-like illness (ILI) can be caused by a range of respiratory viruses. The present study investigates the contribution of influenza and other respiratory viruses, the occurrence of viral co-infections, and the persistence of the viruses after ILI onset in older adults. During the influenza season 2014-2015, 2366 generally healthy community-dwelling older adults (≥60 years) were enrolled in the study. Viruses were identified by multiplex ligation-dependent probe-amplification assay in naso- and oropharyngeal swabs taken during acute ILI phase, and 2 and 8 weeks later. The ILI incidence was 10.7%, which did not differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated older adults; influenza virus was the most frequently detected virus (39.4%). Other viruses with significant contribution were: rhinovirus (17.3%), seasonal coronavirus (9.8%), respiratory syncytial virus (6.7%), and human metapneumovirus (6.3%). Co-infections of influenza virus with other viruses were rare. The frequency of ILI cases in older adults in this 2014-2015 season with low vaccine effectiveness was comparable to that of the 2012-2013 season with moderate vaccine efficacy. The low rate of viral co-infections observed, especially for influenza virus, suggests that influenza virus infection reduces the risk of simultaneous infection with other viruses. Viral persistence or viral co-infections did not affect the clinical outcome of ILI.

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021.

We measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at primary care/outpatient level among adults ≥ 65 years old using a multicentre test-negative design in eight European countries. We included 592 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4,372 test-negative controls in the main analysis. The VE was 62% (95% CI: 45-74) for one dose only and 89% (95% CI: 79-94) for complete vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines provide good protection against COVID-19 presentation at primary care/outpatient level, particularly among fully vaccinated individuals.

Absence of association between 2019-20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19: Results of the European I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care project, March-August 2020.

BACKGROUND: Claims of influenza vaccination increasing COVID-19 risk are circulating. Within the I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care multicentre study, we measured the association between 2019-20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study at primary care level, in study sites in five European countries, from March to August 2020. Patients presenting with acute respiratory infection were swabbed, with demographic, 2019-20 influenza vaccination and clinical information documented. Using logistic regression, we measured the adjusted odds ratio (aOR), adjusting for study site and age, sex, calendar time, presence of chronic conditions. The main analysis included patients swabbed ≤7 days after onset from the three countries with <15% of missing influenza vaccination. In secondary analyses, we included five countries, using multiple imputation with chained equations to account for missing data. RESULTS: We included 257 COVID-19 cases and 1631 controls in the main analysis (three countries). The overall aOR between influenza vaccination and COVID-19 was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.66-1.32). The aOR was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.58-1.46) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.51-1.67) among those aged 20-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. In secondary analyses, we included 6457 cases and 69 272 controls. The imputed aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95) among all ages and any delay between swab and symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that COVID-19 cases were more likely to be vaccinated against influenza than controls. Influenza vaccination should be encouraged among target groups for vaccination. I-MOVE-COVID-19 will continue documenting influenza vaccination status in 2020-21, in order to learn about effects of recent influenza vaccination.

Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands.

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.

High Coxiella burnetii Seroconversion Rate in Veterinary Students, the Netherlands, 2006-2010.

We examined Coxiella burnetii seroconversion rates by measuring C. burnetii IgG among 2 cohorts of veterinary students. During follow-up of 118 seronegative veterinary students, 23 students seroconverted. Although the clinical importance of the presence of antibodies is unknown, veterinary students should be informed about the potential risks for Q fever.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening Program for Chronic Q Fever, the Netherlands.

In the aftermath of a large Q fever (QF) epidemic in the Netherlands during 2007-2010, new chronic QF (CQF) patients continue to be detected. We developed a health-economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a 1-time screening program for CQF 7 years after the epidemic. The model was parameterized with spatial data on QF notifications for the Netherlands, prevalence data from targeted screening studies, and clinical data from the national QF database. The cost-effectiveness of screening varied substantially among subpopulations and geographic areas. Screening that focused on cardiovascular risk patients in areas with high QF incidence during the epidemic ranged from cost-saving to €31,373 per quality-adjusted life year gained, depending on the method to estimate the prevalence of CQF. The cost per quality-adjusted life year of mass screening of all older adults was €70,000 in the most optimistic scenario.

Risk of chronic Q fever in patients with cardiac valvulopathy, seven years after a large epidemic in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: From 2007 through 2010, a large epidemic of acute Q fever occurred in the Netherlands. Patients with cardiac valvulopathy are at high risk to develop chronic Q fever after an acute infection. This patient group was not routinely screened, so it is unknown whether all their chronic infections were diagnosed. This study aims to investigate how many chronic Q fever patients can be identified by routinely screening patients with valvulopathy and to establish whether the policy of not screening should be changed. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study (2016-2017) in a hospital at the epicentre of the Q fever epidemic, a blood sample was taken from patients 18 years and older who presented with cardiac valvulopathy. The sample was tested for IgG antibodies against phase I and II of Coxiella burnetii using an immunofluorescence assay. An IgG phase II titre of ≥1:64 was considered serological evidence of a previous Q fever infection. An IgG phase I titre of ≥1:512 was considered suspicious for a chronic infection, and these patients were referred for medical examination. RESULTS: Of the 904 included patients, 133 (15%) had evidence of a previous C. burnetii infection, of whom 6 (5%) had a chronic infection on medical examination. CONCLUSIONS: In a group of high-risk patients with a heart valve defect, we diagnosed new chronic Q fever infections seven years after the epidemic, emphasizing the need for screening of this group to prevent complications in those not yet diagnosed in epidemic areas.

Exposure to Coxiella burnetii and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a retrospective population-based analysis in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: An association between Coxiella burnetii and non-Hodgkin lymphoma has been suggested. After a large Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands (2007-10), we postulated that the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma would be increased during and after the epidemic in areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with those with low endemicity. METHODS: We did a retrospective population-based analysis and calculated relative risks (RRs) of non-Hodgkin lymphoma during 1-year periods before, during, and after the Q fever epidemic, for areas with intermediate and high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas. We also calculated the RR of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in people with chronic Q fever compared with the general population. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2002, and Dec 31, 2013, 48 760 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma were diagnosed. The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranged from 21·4 per 100 000 per year in 2002 to 26·7 per 100 000 per year in 2010. A significant association with non-Hodgkin lymphoma was noted in 2009 for areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas (RR 1·16, 95% CI 1·02-1·33; p=0·029); no further associations were noted in any other year or for areas with intermediate Q fever endemicity. Among 439 individuals with chronic Q fever, five developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma, yielding a crude absolute risk of 301·0 cases per 100 000 per year (RR 4·99, 95% CI 2·07-11·98; p=0·0003) compared with the general population in the Netherlands. INTERPRETATION: These findings do not support the hypothesis that Q fever has a relevant causal role in the development of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Several limitations, inherent to the design of this study, might lead to both underestimation and overestimation of the studied association. FUNDING: Foundation Q-support and Institut Mérieux.

Exploring the effect of previous inactivated influenza vaccination on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza: Results of the European I-MOVE multicentre test-negative case-control study, 2011/2012-2016/2017.

BACKGROUND: Results of previous influenza vaccination effects on current season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) are inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To explore previous influenza vaccination effects on current season VE among population targeted for vaccination. METHODS: We used 2011/2012 to 2016/2017 I-MOVE primary care multicentre test-negative data. For each season, we compared current season adjusted VE (aVE) between individuals vaccinated and unvaccinated in previous season. Using unvaccinated in both seasons as a reference, we then compared aVE between vaccinated in both seasons, current only, and previous only. RESULTS: We included 941, 2645 and 959 influenza-like illness patients positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively, and 5532 controls. In 2011/2012, 2014/2015 and 2016/2017, A(H3N2) aVE point estimates among those vaccinated in previous season were -68%, -21% and -19%, respectively; among unvaccinated in previous season, these were 33%, 48% and 46%, respectively (aVE not computable for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B). Compared to current season vaccination only, VE for both seasons' vaccination was (i) similar in two of four seasons for A(H3N2) (absolute difference [ad] 6% and 8%); (ii) lower in three of four seasons for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (ad 18%, 26% and 29%), in two seasons for influenza A(H3N2) (ad 27% and 39%) and in two of three seasons for influenza B (ad 26% and 37%); (iii) higher in one season for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (ad 20%) and influenza B (ad 24%). CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify any pattern of previous influenza vaccination effect. Prospective cohort studies documenting influenza infections, vaccinations and vaccine types are needed to understand previous influenza vaccinations' effects.

Should Acute Q-Fever Patients be Screened for Valvulopathy to Prevent Endocarditis?

Background: Echocardiographic screening of acute Q-fever patients and antibiotic prophylaxis for patients with cardiac valvulopathy is considered an important approach to prevent chronic Q-fever-related endocarditis. During a large Q-fever epidemic in the Netherlands, routine screening echocardiography was discontinued, raising controversy in the international literature. We followed a cohort of acute Q-fever patients to estimate the risk for developing chronic Q-fever, and we evaluated the impact of screening in patients who were not yet known to have a valvulopathy. Methods: The study population consisted of patients diagnosed with acute Q-fever in 2007 and 2008. We retrospectively reviewed all screening echocardiographs and checked for development of chronic Q-fever 8 years after the acute episode. Risks of developing chronic Q-fever in relation to the presence or absence of valvulopathy were analyzed with logistic regression. Results: The cohort included 509 patients, of whom 306 received echocardiographic screening. There was no significant difference (P-value = .22) in occurrence of chronic Q-fever between patients with a newly detected valvulopathy (2/84, 2.4%) and those with no valvulopathy (12/202, 5.9%). Two patients with a newly detected valvulopathy, who did not receive antibiotic prophylaxis, developed chronic Q-fever at a later stage. Conclusions: We found no difference in outcome between patients with and without a valvulopathy newly detected by echocardiographic screening. In retrospect, the 2 above-mentioned patients could have benefitted from antibiotic prophylaxis, but its omission must be weighed against the unnecessary large-scale and long-term use of antibiotics that would have resulted from universal echocardiographic screening.

Influenza-like Illness Incidence Is Not Reduced by Influenza Vaccination in a Cohort of Older Adults, Despite Effectively Reducing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Virus Infections.

Background: Data on the relative contribution of influenza virus and other respiratory pathogens to respiratory infections in community-dwelling older adults (≥60 years) are needed. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was performed in the Netherlands during 2 winters. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected during influenza-like illness (ILI) episodes and from controls. Viruses and bacteria were identified by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification assay and conventional bacterial culture. Results: The ILI incidence in the consecutive seasons was 7.2% and 11.6%, and influenza virus caused 18.9% and 34.2% of ILI episodes. Potential pathogen were detected in 80% of the ILI events with influenza virus, coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, and Haemophilus influenzae being the most common. Influenza vaccination reduced influenza virus infection by 73% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26%-90%) and 51% (95% CI, 7%-74%) in ILI patients. However, ILI incidence was similar between vaccinated (7.6% and 10.8%) and nonvaccinated (4.2% and 11.4%) participants in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, respectively (P > .05). Conclusions: Influenza virus is a frequent pathogen in older adults with ILI. Vaccination reduces the number of influenza virus infections but not the overall number of ILI episodes: other pathogens fill the gap. We suggest the existence of a pool of individuals with high susceptibility to respiratory infections. Clinical Trials Registration: NTR3386.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Netherlands from 2003/2004 through 2013/2014: The Importance of Circulating Influenza Virus Types and Subtypes.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies over different influenza seasons and virus (sub)types/lineages. To assess the association between IVE and circulating influenza virus (sub)types/lineages, we estimated the overall and (sub)type specific IVE in the Netherlands. We conducted a test-negative case control study among subjects with influenza-like illness or acute respiratory tract infection consulting the Sentinel Practices over 11 influenza seasons (2003/2004 through 2013/2014) in the Netherlands. The adjusted IVE was estimated using generalized linear mixed modelling and multiple logistic regression. In seven seasons vaccine strains did not match the circulating viruses. Overall adjusted IVE was 40% (95% CI 18 to 56%) and 20% (95% CI -5 to 38%) when vaccine (partially)matched and mismatched the circulating viruses, respectively. When A(H3N2) was the predominant virus, IVE was 38% (95% CI 14 to 55%). IVE against infection with former seasonal A(H1N1) virus was 83% (95% CI 52 to 94%), and with B virus 67% (95% CI 55 to 76%). In conclusion IVE estimates were particularly low when vaccine mismatched the circulating viruses and A(H3N2) was the predominant influenza virus subtype. Tremendous effort is required to improve vaccine production procedure and to explore the factors that influence the IVE against A(H3N2) virus.

Long-Term Correlation between Influenza Vaccination Coverage and Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness in 14 European Countries.

We aimed to examine the long-term correlation between influenza vaccination coverage and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the total and elderly populations of European countries for which data was available on at least six consecutive influenza seasons. We graphically visualised vaccination coverage and ILI incidence trends and calculated Spearman rank correlation coefficients. Additionally, we fitted a negative binomial regression model to estimate the change in ILI incidence per percentage point change in vaccination coverage. We found significant negative correlations for the total population of the Netherlands (ρ = -0.60, p-value = 0.003) and for the elderly populations of England (ρ = -0.80, p-value < 0.001) and Germany (ρ = -0.57, p-value = 0.04). However, results were not consistent, and for some countries we observed significant positive correlations. Only for the elderly in England was there a significant decline in incidence rate per percentage point increase in vaccination coverage (incidence rate ratio = 0.93; 95% confidence interval 0.88-0.99). Based on this ecological study it is not possible to provide evidence for a negative correlation between influenza vaccination coverage and ILI incidence. For future, aetiological studies to assess impact of influenza vaccinations on the population, there is a need for high quality data over long periods of time, on proportion of ILI caused by influenza virus infection, on severe outcome measures such as hospitalisation for influenza, and on other factors that potentially affect influenza transmission.